In the ever-competitive world of sneakers, two titans — Adidas and Nike — are going head-to-head. Their approaches couldn’t be more different, and recent earnings reports make it clear which strategy is winning the battle for the modern sneakerhead's wallet.@mikemonnette I first learned about this idea when reading the The Power of Habit maybe ten or so years ago, and ever since it’s really influenced how I think about design, influence, and human taste. In that book, the author explains that the song “Hey Ya” by Outkast, despite being predicted to be a hit by software designed for that purpose, was an initial flop out of the gates because it was too different from existing songs. Our human brains like things that are a little familiar and a little different, and once I learned about the idea I began to see it everywhere. It’s such an interesting theory to turn over in your head because it sheds light on why we as humans can enjoy different things. The items that sit in each of our zones of optimal novelty will differ based on our experiences. This is a pretty niche theory and I don’t necessarily think that Adidas is purposefully applying it (although maybe they are), but their strategy around the Samba is a great example of the theory in action. Is this the only reason Nike is struggling? Of course not. But their North American footwear business dropped -14% in the most recently reported quarter while Adidas’s sales surged 10% driven by success in their lifestyle business, and a walk around any major city will show you more stylish people wearing Adidas than any time recently, so reading between tea leaves I think it’s a fair application of the theory. I also think New Balance is benefiting from this effect as well, with all of their 990ish models providing options that are similar enough to be familiar while different enough to provide an avenue to express individuality. I am of course, painting with broad strokes here in order to fit the idea into a video of semi-digestible length. I’ll get it into a bit more in part 2, but I’d really like to emphasize the point that Nike isn’t standing behind a low-profile, organically shaped model – this would be their on-ramp for trend aware shoe shoppers and they’re just totally missing that from their broadly available assortment at the moment. #style #psychology #popularpsychology #popsychology #sneakers #adidas #adidassamba #nike #fashion ♬ original sound - Mike
- Adidas's sales grew by 14% in the most recent quarter, fueled by success in their lifestyle sneaker line.
- In contrast, Nike's sales fell by 10% during the same period, with North American footwear sales plunging 14%.
In recent years Nike banked on exclusivity. Through the SNKRS app and ultra-rare designer collabs, they’ve created a sense of scarcity. But while this works for die-hard sneakerheads, it leaves the average consumer — who wants something trendy yet accessible — feeling left out.
Adidas, meanwhile, is crushing it by tapping into a subtle but powerful psychological concept: the “theory of optimal novelty.”
What is the Theory of Optimal Novelty?
This theory suggests that humans gravitate toward products that strike a balance between familiarity and novelty. If something is too familiar, it feels boring. If it’s too new, it feels off-putting. The sweet spot — where things are fresh but still recognizable — is where the magic happens.
Think about music. A song that's just familiar enough (but with a twist) feels instantly catchy. A wild, genre-breaking track might take time to catch on — if it ever does.
The same principle applies to design and fashion.
Adidas’s Winning Formula: The Samba and Its Offshoots
Flash back to Summer 2022: Chunky sneakers were fading out, and sleeker, low-profile shoes were stepping into the spotlight. Searches for Adidas’s classic Samba started surging. But instead of flooding the market with the same old black-and-white Samba, Adidas played it smart.
They asked themselves: How can we introduce models that feel like the Samba but offer just enough novelty to stay exciting?
Enter a lineup that perfectly balances familiarity and freshness:
- Samba OG
- Gazelle Indoor
- Handball Spezial
- SL72 and other revived classics
This strategy creates a seamless journey for sneaker lovers:
- Play it safe? Stick with the classic Samba.
- Trend-chaser? Try a limited-edition design.
- Somewhere in the middle? Go for a new model in an unexpected colorway.
- Adidas keeps hitting that “optimal novelty” sweet spot, ensuring there’s always something fresh without veering too far from what customers already love.
Now, compare this to Nike's current lineup. Their go-to lifestyle models — the Air Force 1, Blazer, Air Max, Dunk, and Jordans — are all bulkier, high-profile shoes. None of these fit the current trend toward sleek, organic shapes.
On top of that:
- Their color options are limited.
- New versions of these models feel stale or uninspired.
- Another identical pair (boring).
- A radically different model (too risky).
A Lesson in Design and Taste
I first came across the theory of optimal novelty in the book The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg. He explained how Outkast’s “Hey Ya” — despite being predicted as a surefire hit — initially flopped because it was too different. Our brains crave a balance of the familiar and the new, whether it’s music, fashion, or design.
Adidas’s approach to the Samba line is a masterclass in leveraging this idea, even if they’re not consciously applying it. By offering products that are just different enough, they’ve cemented their status as the go-to brand for fashion-forward sneaker lovers.
The Road Ahead
Of course, Adidas risks oversaturation. But if they keep innovating within that zone of optimal novelty, they can ride this wave for a while. Brands like New Balance are also benefiting from this principle — their 990 series offers just the right balance of familiarity and novelty for today's tastes.
Meanwhile, unless Nike strikes success followed by iterative development, possibly with a low-profile, trend-friendly silhouette, they risk falling further behind.
What do you think? Are you team Adidas, Nike, or somewhere in between? Let me know in the comments!